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Gary Horton of Scouts Inc. offers his AFC previews today. Here are snippets and links to the files, which require an Insider membership.



They are heavy on philosophy, and quite good.



Houston Texans



The file.



Offensive nugget: “This may be the best play action package in the NFL when the run game is going. In 2009, it was not. They bootleg off the play action very effectively and QB Matt Schaub is an excellent ball handler. He has decent mobility in the pocket. He is very precise in his throws and he is at his best when he has a clean pocket, but his best attribute may be his ability to check down to his other targets if his first read is not there; Schaub is not afraid to throw it away, which was a problem earlier in his career.”



Defensive nugget: “As the players improve, so will the diversity of the schemes. Their lack of ability to play those tight man coverages really shows up in the red zone when the field shrinks and they can’t play off techniques. They were 30th in the league a year ago in red zone defense.”



Indianapolis Colts



The file.



Offensive nugget: “[Peyton] Manning uses motion, bunch formations, multi-receiver sets, multi-TE sets — and despite the appearance of a really complex offense, this attack has fewer plays than you think. Basically, the Colts just run the plays they do have really well.”



Defensive nugget: “The Colts are actually getting a little better at stopping the run. The difference between this team going a few games deep into the playoffs and winning it all likely will be its run defense.”



Jacksonville Jaguars



The file.



Offensive nugget: “The only suggestion that head coach Jack Del Rio has given [Dirk Koetter] is fewer runs between the tackles — which makes the offense too predictable — and more outside plays, especially bootleg plays by QB David Garrard, which is something he does well. The Jaguars are working with him to get the ball out quickly and keep the pocket moving.”



Defensive nugget: “If there is good news for this defense, it is the fact that it is pretty good at corner with decent depth and cover skills — which is imperative because of all the other deficiencies on this side of the ball. We have already noted the problems with the pass rush, but the Jags are also unstable at linebacker and safety and their tackles are new guys. That is a lot of uncertainly up the middle of the defense and it puts extra pressure on the corners.”



Tennessee Titans



The file.



Offensive nugget: “Their [offensive] linemen are not a bunch of glamorous names, but they are smart, they play with pride and discipline, and they are excellent run-blockers, as evidenced by the production of [Chris] Johnson. However, they are also excellent in pass protection, giving up only 15 sacks in 2009 (second to Indianapolis). When you break this unit down on film, it really seems to understand blocking schemes and angles and it does an excellent job of getting position and reaching the second level. Johnson is a good fit with this line. He’s very patient and waits for the right blocks to develop.”



Defensive nugget: “This is a very assignment-oriented defensive unit with the desired qualities of aggressiveness and constant movement — but also intelligence and discipline. If the front four doesn’t apply better pressure in 2010, we may see more blitzes and exotic schemes to compensate for its weaknesses.”

It’s that popular time of year again when football analysts from around the country make NFL predictions.



Last week, frequent AFC North blog contributor Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. raised some eyebrows when he predicted the Baltimore Ravens would finish third in the division during our podcast to preview the 2010 season. The Ravens are considered Super Bowl contenders in the AFC. But Williamson believes the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals, in that order, will finish ahead of Baltimore.



The AFC North blog checked in with Williamson this week to get an in-depth explanation.



Matt, why third place for the Ravens?



Matt Williamson: Two months ago or a month ago, the Ravens were going to be my Super Bowl pick in the AFC. But there is one big knock to me, and that’s their secondary. I just don’t trust it, and I think it’s something that’s easy to exploit. When you look at their pass defense, the general public tends to think Baltimore is a great pass-rushing team, and that really isn’t true. The Ravens are middle of the road, and they’re not what they used to be in terms of getting to the quarterback. So that obviously puts more stress on the secondary. Their two top corners are coming off ACL injuries, they lost Domonique Foxworth, who’s a very solid player. Ed Reed, I don’t know exactly his situation, but to count on him to be [the usual] Ed Reed again seems like a liability. If I’m playing the Ravens the first thing I do — instead of beating my head against the wall running against Shaun Cody, Kelly Gregg, Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata in the middle — is come out with three or four wide [receivers] and make them bring their nickel and dime personnel on the field and put their star players on the sideline. It’s not a knock on the team. They can still win it all. But I had to pick, and that was the biggest negative of the three teams.



What are your thoughts on the Steelers’ quarterback situation and the Bengals’ history of inconsistency? Are those concerns?



Williamson: They absolutely are, there’s no question about it. But looking at the Steelers’ schedule, the worst I can see them without Ben Roethlisberger is being 2-2, and I don’t think 3-1 is out of the question. With Roethlisberger, I don’t think it’s even close that he’s the best quarterback in the division. He’s only out for four games. That’s not insurmountable odds, especially with a stud quarterback. They can tread water for a month and Ben comes in on his white horse and saves the day. With the Bengals, there are some organizations that are hard to trust and they are one of them. I’m also not sold on the quarterback [Carson Palmer] to be the guy he once was. I’m not saying he isn’t, but I’m just not sure that he is.



It’s hard to get three playoff teams from the same division. Therefore, will the Ravens make the postseason in 2010?



Williamson: I would say no. If they do come in third, they’re probably beating each other up. The AFC East looks the same way to me. They probably have three playoff-caliber teams but I don’t see three getting in. I feel the same way about the AFC North. I tend to think there will be two from each division.

Thursday will bring us the NFL’s annual “Hold Your Breath Night,” when the only goal is to avoid senseless injuries in the most meaningless game in what is already a mostly insignificant preseason. Keeping in mind that health is the entire focus, let’s set up preseason Week 4 in the NFC North.



Chicago Bears

Opponent: Cleveland Browns

Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Personnel notes: The team has already confirmed that quarterback Jay Cutler won’t play. Instead, new backup Todd Collins will see extensive playing time in hopes of solidifying the No. 2 spot. There is no official word on the rest of the team’s front-line players, but it’s hard to imagine the Bears risking hobbled linebackers Brian Urlacher (calf) and Lance Briggs (ankle). The offensive line could probably use the extra work after failing to establish much of a preseason rhythm. Is that important enough to suit up Thursday night? I actually think so.



Detroit Lions

Opponent: Buffalo Bills

Location: Ford Field

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

Personnel notes: Quarterback Matthew Stafford said earlier this week that he would play. Coach Jim Schwartz wouldn’t confirm that plan and said his thoughts could change in the hours leading up to the game. If Stafford and the rest of the first-team offense play, it’s likely to be only for a series or two. The same goes for the first-team defense, although a few front-line linebackers and defensive backs probably need to play in order to secure their starting jobs.



Green Bay Packers

Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs

Location: Arrowhead Stadium

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Personnel notes: Coach Mike McCarthy said his plan was to play starters for one series, although it’s possible that quarterback Aaron Rodgers might not join them. As Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com, Rodgers has gotten the No. 1 offense to the sideline quickly in preseason finales by throwing a deep touchdown pass right away. No matter what McCarthy ends up doing, linebacker Clay Matthews (hamstring) is one starter who definitely won’t play.



Minnesota Vikings

Opponent: Denver Broncos

Location: Metrodome

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Personnel notes: Coach Brad Childress was giving consideration to playing starters for a few series, something he hasn’t done in the preseason finale since 2006. The offense could use the extra work, but remember, the Vikings open the regular season three days early. Playing one series Thursday night won’t offer much benefit, but substantial playing time would result in limited recovery time before making the Sept. 9 trip to New Orleans. Chances are that Childress will choose rest, but stranger things have happened.

The tight ends are the next stop on our tour of NFC South position rankings.



Let’s start with a quick overview on a position that’s got to be considered one of the division’s overall strengths. The NFC South has arguably the best tight end ever, two guys who can be very good when they’re healthy and happy and a bunch of guys that are solid role players. Let’s jump into the rankings.

1. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons. Yes, he’s on the downside of his career and he’s even dropped some hints that this might be his last year. But none of that really shows up on the field. Gonzalez takes such good care of himself that age doesn’t really detract from his performance. He’s Matt Ryan’s favorite target and having slot receiver Harry Douglas back in the offense this year should help open more of the field for Gonzalez.
2. Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers. Yes, you have to be concerned because the Bucs have been so cautious with Winslow’s knee throughout the camp and preseason. But there were a lot of days last season when he didn’t practice. The knee probably will remain an issue and Winslow might get days off from practice, but the important thing is that he’s on the field on Sundays. He made it through all 16 games last season and produced 77 catches in a season where the Bucs were juggling quarterbacks. With Josh Freeman now firmly in the starting role, Winslow could be even more of a force.
3. Jeremy Shockey, Saints. Knock him all you want because he brings some of that on with his flamboyant style. But this guy still makes some pretty big plays. He’s not going to be an 80-catch guy because New Orleans has so many other targets in the passing game, but he’s an important part of that mix. Durability is a bit of a concern, but Shockey’s always a threat when he’s on the field.
4. David Thomas, Saints. No, he’s not a starter, but he played a huge role in the New Orleans offense last year, even lining up at fullback at times. With starting fullback Heath Evans healthy and back in the lineup, Thomas should be able to focus more on just playing tight end. With Shockey’s durability issues and Sean Payton’s creative offense, Thomas will be on the field a lot. He’s a guy who could start for some other teams.
5. Dante Rosario, Panthers. Carolina uses a rotation of three tight ends and none of them are going to put up huge numbers in an offense that doesn’t throw to the tight end often. But Rosario is the one who is the biggest threat as a receiver.
6. Jeff King, Panthers. King’s kind of a jack-of-all trades in this offense. He’s got good hands and could put up bigger numbers in a different offensive system, but he nicely fits a role here.
7. Justin Pelle, Falcons. A solid veteran, who gets to do some of the dirty work the Falcons try to spare Gonzalez from.
8. Jimmy Graham, Saints. This rookie is a project with only one year of college football experience under his belt. But the former basketball player is a phenomenal athlete. Payton will include Graham in some packages to try to take advantage of his athletic ability.
9. Gary Barnidge, Panthers. He’s the third man in the rotation with King and Rosario. He only caught 12 passes last year, but averaged better than 20 yards per catch. That statistic could convince the Panthers to throw to him a bit more often.

There are fewer running backs carrying full loads around the NFL, which means the profile of the top receivers has risen during fantasy drafts.



So AFC South blogger Paul Kuharsky steps outside of his usual arena to debate fantasy expert Ken Daube on this issue: Who’s the better choice as top fantasy receiver, the Houston Texans’ Andre Johnson or the New England Patriots’ Randy Moss?



Paul Kuharsky: Well Ken, it’s our turn to take the stage in the Eight Great Debate Series and we’ve drawn a good one: Who’s the better fantasy option, AJ or Randy?



I always hate to appear I am backing the AFC South just because it’s what I cover. But this job gives me an up close view of Andre Johnson and I’d have a lot of trouble drafting any receiver ahead of him heading into the 2010 season.



Moss is explosive, and there will be weeks when he can single-handedly win you a game in a fantasy league. But I prefer a week-to-week chart that has fewer valleys than Moss’ might. Johnson had six games of under 70 yards last season. Moss had nine, including three that were smaller totals than Johnson’s worst game.



While Tom Brady and Moss could link up in ridiculous fashion the way they did three years ago — when the receiver caught 23 touchdowns — I’ve got to judge things on the most recent evidence. I think Johnson will catch more balls for more yards. Texans tight end Owen Daniels, if healthy, could approach Johnson in targets. But a healthy Wes Welker will draw Brady’s attention away from Moss more than any Texans pass-catcher can take away from Johnson.



Ken Daube: OK Paul, let me interrupt you right here so I can clear something up nice and early. Johnson, for as good as he was in 2009, only outscored Moss by nine fantasy points. Consider that Johnson and his quarterback, Matt Schaub, were healthy for the whole season. On the other hand, Moss played 11 games after separating his shoulder and Brady was at less than 100 percent as he was returning from a blown-out knee. Thus it’s clear to me that for Johnson to be considered the superior option in 2010, he should have blown away Moss last season.



Welker’s targets aren’t going to be any sort of hindrance to Moss’ fantasy value. Over the past three seasons, Welker has been targeted an average of 152 times. Moss’ value wasn’t affected. In fact, last season was the season that Welker had the most targets (162), and the banged-up Moss still finished as the second-best fantasy receiver.



On the other hand, your argument does work against your case for Johnson. In case you forgot, Daniels was injured in the Houston Texans’ eighth game of the season. The loss presented more opportunities for Johnson, who scored 21 more fantasy points in the games that Daniels missed versus the contests in which Daniels participated. Without those 21 points, Moss would have finished as the top wide receiver last year and I’d be having this argument with someone else, because Johnson would have plummeted to fourth.



Paul Kuharsky: Look, Ken, on my team we are anti-Diva. Johnson’s going to run his route every snap, block for the run game, face the media as often as they ask for him and be completely accountable. This fosters chemistry in my pretend locker room, and we all know you get a ton of points for team harmony …



Sure, Johnson did benefit a bit from Daniels being out. He had 13 more catches in the second half of the season than he did in the first, when Daniels was on the field with him. But my guess is if the Texans played Seattle and St. Louis — two of the league’s eight worst pass defenses — in the first half of the season instead of the second half, Johnson still would have had close to 20 catches and nearly 200 yards a game against them.



Houston was 30th running the ball last year, and while I expect the Texans will be better, they are still going to have to sling it to maximize their chances to win.



Weather will rarely get in their way. Conditions at all of Johnson’s home games are good, or the roof at Reliant Stadium is closed. They only have three outdoor games in cold season — at the Jets, at Philly and at Denver. The Patriots, meanwhile, have eight such games with November trips to Cleveland and Pittsburgh, December road games at Chicago and Buffalo and four November-December games at Foxborough, Mass. Cold weather isn’t killing Moss or the Patriots’ pass game, but it’s not ideal for it either.



Ken Daube: Actually, the cold weather is perfect for the Patriots’ pass game. In their last two games in significant snow (versus the Cardinals in 2008 and the Titans in 2009), the Patriots averaged 53 points per game. Moss averaged 108 yards and two scores in those games. Bring on the bad weather, it works for Moss.



Back to the Texans, when you think about it, last year broke almost perfectly for Johnson. With both Steve Slaton and Daniels injured, the Texans were left with only one option — Johnson. This season, Arian Foster will man the backfield. Based on his performance in the final two games last season and his 2010 preseason, he’s looking like a very good back for their running system. Daniels returns and big things are expected from Jacoby Jones as well. All of those factors are going to eat into Johnson’s opportunities.



Meanwhile, in Foxborough, the same cast of misfits will be running the ball and their second receiver remains the same. Sure, they’ve rolled the dice on some youngsters as their third receiver and tight ends, but none of those roles will detract from Moss’ value. You can be sure that Moss wants redemption for being labeled as soft last season. With a new contract on the line, Moss already had incentive for ensuring he finishes as the top receiver this year. Wanting redemption will just keep him more focused. He won’t score 23 times this season, but projecting anything less than 16 is foolish. Considering that Johnson scored 17 times in the last two seasons combined, those taking Johnson are going to have to bank on an awful lot of yardage to inflate Johnson’s value. With Foster, Daniels and Jones around, I just can’t see enough yardage available this year.



Paul Kuharsky: I’ve got to be honest. This qualifies as a beat down right now. My first attempt at a fantasy-based debate should be my last and I should stick to being an AFC South expert. But since I have the final word, I’ll take my best shot at pulling out a late win. Like Schaub would be throwing to Johnson in such a situation, I will aim for your colleagues, Matthew Berry and Eric Karabell.



“I’m on Andre’s side,” Berry said. “…You should know the consensus is Andre as well, so you can always play [up that] millions of people can’t be wrong.



“Andre Johnson has led the NFL in receiving yards for two straight years. The only other wide receiver to do that in NFL history? Jerry Rice. (Thank you for that stat, Chris Harris.)



“Matt Schaub threw for at least 300 yards nine times last year, tied for the NFL lead with Peyton Manning.



“Oh, and by the way, if Randy Moss does outscore Andre Johnson this year from a fantasy perspective, it’ll be the first time in three years that the 33-year-old Moss has done it.”



Said Karabell: “I can’t really make a great case for Moss, actually. I think of the main fantasy positions, I can make a case for the No. 2 quarterback over No. 1, and same at running back, but not at wide receiver. AJ is dominant, it’s an underrated passing offense and he’s got years and legs on Moss.”



So there.



Also, Ken, aren’t you the guy who said LaDainian Tomlinson should be the No. 1 player drafted in 2009?

Rex Ryan is the face of the New York Jets and the star of the HBO series “Hard Knocks.”



The head coach apparently is wary of not only being in front as a leader, but also alone.



In the latest episode of “Hard Knocks,” an exasperated Ryan scolds his team for a growing lack of professionalism and a dearth of demonstrable leadership.



Previous scenes showed offensive coaches bemoaning a lack of confidence, veteran pass-rusher Jason Taylor showing up late multiple times and defensive players groping into a McDonald’s bag for cheeseburgers during warmups for a practice at Hofstra University.



Ryan’s speech to his players the night before playing the Washington Redskins:

“You guys know me, that I’m about as positive a guy as there is. I believe our team is better than every [expletive] team in the league. I believe our players are better than any players in the league, right? Those are true statements. That’s how I believe.



“But the team’s only going so far if I’m the only guy that leads. The team is only going so far. I’m not a great leader, OK? I’m not a great leader. I can’t lead myself, this whole group of men. We ain’t going to win, guys, if it’s about me.



“I’m sitting back for us, waiting for us to understand the team that we said we’re going to be. What the hell are we waiting on? What are we waiting on? Do you want it or not? Do you understand there’s a price to pay?



“Can we have fun? You’re damn right. I demand that we have fun. Now there’s a difference between having fun and being a jackass. Our defense was a jackass when we went to Hofstra, eating a bunch of [expletive] cheeseburgers before we go stretch and all that. That’s being a jackass.



“You can be a world champion, but not like this. We won’t win it. We’ll sit back and say ‘Why didn’t we do it?’ We didn’t do it because ‘Where were our [expletive] priorities?’ How about our offense? When are we going to put it together? Can we not run the ball down their throats every snap? Can we not throw it any time we want to [expletive] throw it?



“Let’s make sure we play like the [expletive] New York Jets and not some slap [expletive] team. That’s what I want to see tomorrow. Do we understand what I want to [expletive] see tomorrow?”

Earlier in the show, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer admits his players aren’t showing much assertiveness. Quarterbacks coach Matt Cavanaugh and running backs coach Anthony Lynn agree.



“We have some really talented guys,” Cavanaugh says. “But none of them motivate vocally the group. So they all kind of look to each other like ‘Yeah, we’re pretty talented. Somebody’s going to make a play here,’ instead of saying ‘I’ll take this [expletive] game over.’ ”



Other highlights on this episode (there’s only one more):

• Nose tackle Kris Jenkins telling the rest of the defense in Washington they needed to force a turnover because Mark Sanchez needed more work.
• Ryan’s man crush on rookie fullback John Conner and the possibility veteran Tony Richardson will be released.
• A close look at how much rookie left guard Vladimir Ducasse is struggling and concerns that position will get Sanchez hurt.
• Ryan telling former Florida State coach Bobby Bowden that Santonio Holmes might be the best player on the field.
• How backup quarterback Kellen Clemens avoided being cut.
• Releasing receiver Laveranues Coles and reserve quarterback Kevin O’Connell.
• Flabbergasted general manager Mike Tannenbaum trying to decipher where Tim Cowlishaw’s infamous report about Darrelle Revis was coming from.
• Ryan on the first three games against the Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins: “We open the season with three of our toughest games right out of the gate. But the great thing is if we end up kicking ass, that’s going to send a frickin’ message to the rest of the league. ‘Oh, [expletive]!’ “