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Nov. 12: Mike Florio thinks if Mike Holmgren is going to become the new Browns GM, he should start this year so he can get a feel for whether he wants to stay in Cleveland in the long run. (NBC Sports)

Nov. 12: Mike Florio thinks if Mike Holmgren is going to become the new Browns GM, he should start this year so he can get a feel for whether he wants to stay in Cleveland in the long run. (NBC Sports)

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	Jim Caldwell may be a first-year head coach, but he was an assistant in nine Colts-Patriots matchups, so has experience preparing for Patriots coach Bill Belichick.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Paul Kuharsky



Jim Caldwell’s not some newbie who has been dropped into a matchup against New England and is preparing for Bill Belichick’s game-plan wrinkles for the first time.



As one of Tony Dungy ‘s former assistants, he was been part of nine Colts-Patriots games, including three in the postseason. Indy was 4-5 in those games.



According to Elias Sports Bureau, Belichick is 28-19 in his career against first-year coaches, 20-11 while with the Patriots. Belichick is 1-2 this year, with losses to Rex Ryan and Josh McDaniels, and a win against Raheem Morris.



“[Caldwell] is not like most first-year coaches. He’s been there for seven years, he’s seen it, he’s dissected the matchups, he’s supervised a lot of the game-planning especially offensively for however many games they’ve played,” Dungy said on a conference call arranged by NBC, for whom he’s now an analyst. “So it’s not like a new guy coming in. He’s very aware of everything that’s taken place those last seven years. I really don’t look at this like a first-year coach in a normal sense.”



Caldwell’s been excellent in his first eight games as Dungy’s successor, maintaining the good thing he inherited.



He’s been a bit more aggressive on offense with some bold fourth-down calls. He’s installed a defensive coordinator, Larry Coyer, and allowed him to increase the frequency is which the team blitzes and plays man defense. His new special-teams coach, Ray Rychleski, hasn’t solved the team’s long-standing return game issues, but he does have the coverage teams playing much better.



Caldwell is tied with Potsy Clark, of the 1931 Portsmouth Spartans, for the second best winning streak to start a career. (You remember those Spartans, of course. They went 11-3 and finished second. Yes, it was the same year the Frankfurt Yellow Jackets went 1-6-1.)



With two more wins, Caldwell will catch Wally Lemm, who won his first 10 in 1961-62 with the Houston Oilers and St. Louis Cardinals.



“They are obviously playing well and he’s got them hitting on all cylinders and playing with a lot of confidence, playing good football,” Belichick said. “I respect the job that he’s done as a head coach, as an assistant coach and the job he’s doing now with the Colts.”



Belichick is notorious for changing things up game to game, so the Colts are unlikely to see much that looks familiar from the Patriots’ performances in recent weeks. The ability of Caldwell, his staff and quarterback Peyton Manning to adjust as they go will be a major storyline in Sunday night’s game.



Former Patriots safety Rodney Harrison, also an NBC analyst, said Belichick would flip him to corner against the Colts, with Ty Law playing some safety.



“The thing that Bill gave us to do was create a lot of freedom by trying to disguise the coverage,” Harrison said on a conference call this week. “… We wanted to create some level of confusion for Peyton Manning as well as jam and wear down Marvin Harrison.”



Dungy said that was very unusual.



Other wrinkles the Patriots used against Dungy’s Colts were more about what Belichick deployed when, not unveiling something brand new.



“Usually what happens is, it’s not something you haven’t seen, it’s just something that you don’t expect or they haven’t done,” Dungy said. “Usually you’ll come into a game, New England’s showing a lot of blitzes, five-man pressures, and in our game they decide to rush three and drop eight, or vice versa. There has been a lot of three-man rush before and now it’s a different look or it’s nickel and dime defense on first down or it’s four-man line.”



“That’s the thing from the Colts’ standpoint that we’ve always admired about the Patriots. They’ve been able to have a different game plan even for halves sometime — first half there is a four-man line, second half there is a three-man line, first half is base defense, second half is nickel or dime. You have to be ready to adjust when you play New England.”



Tom Brady said Caldwell’s Colts play a more straight-up defense, relying on the pass pressure of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.



“They’ll have some new wrinkles,” Brady said. “They always find a way to mix up some of their tendencies. But in the end — through eight games — that’s really what they do. All of that’s on film now.

	AP Photo/Jim Prisching
	Where the blame lies for Aaron Rodgers’ NFL-high 37 sacks has been a source of debate in Green Bay.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert



I’ve tended to deflect the blame on Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers for his NFL-high 37 sacks this season, a pace that would put him within striking distance of David Carr‘s record of 76 while playing for Houston in 2002.



There’s no doubt Rodgers has held the ball too long on some occasions, in some instances causing a sack on plays where offensive linemen were coached to block for a quick release. My thought, however, is that a good pass-blocking offensive line can keep a quarterback clean no matter how long he holds the ball. In fact, quarterbacks are often praised for giving receivers extra time to get open.



To help demystify this issue, Hank Gargiulo of ESPN’s Stats & Information timed how long Rodgers has held the ball on every sack this season — from the snap until the point where significant contact or the act of bringing Rodgers to the ground occurred.



The results of Gargiulo’s study are contained in the chart below. Keep in mind this is one person’s attempt at a subjective process. (I was once scolded by a personnel man who threw me a stopwatch and asked me to show him the “accepted” way to time a 40-yard dash. It had something to do with finger placement. Whatever.)

How should we judge this data? It’s important to note that every team has different standards for a quarterback’s release, and often they depend on the type of dropback and route tree associated with the play call. Regardless, in West Coast offenses such as Green Bay’s, the rule of thumb generally is four seconds. Put it this way: There are few plays designed for a quarterback to hold it longer, and given the state of the Packers’ offensive line, I think you can safely assume none of them have been called.



Gargiulo’s chart has some big numbers on it, including 8.0 seconds last week against Tampa Bay and 6.5 seconds two weeks ago against Minnesota. But overall, Rodgers was sacked prior to the four-second mark on 28 of the 37 occasions.



Even if you adjust for subjective timing and the intent of each particular play call, I think this study gives us an important baseline: It’s roughly 3-1. We can fairly blame Rodgers for one of every four sacks he’s taken.



You might consider that a higher number than it should be, but I look at it differently. To me, it means the focus on Rodgers’ role in the sacks shouldn’t overshadow the bigger picture: Responsibility for the majority lies elsewhere.

	Kirby Lee/Image of Sport/US Presswire; Christopher Hanewinckel/US Presswire
	Who would you rather have running your team: Bill Polian or Bill Belichick?

Posted by ESPN.com’s Tim Graham



The running debate every time the New England Patriots play the Indianapolis Colts centers on the two great quarterbacks of this generation and which one you’d rather have to run your offense.



But what about the bigger picture?



Sunday’s game in Lucas Oil Stadium also will be a rematch of organizational masterminds bound for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.



Patriots coach Bill Belichick and Colts president Bill Polian are among the all-time best franchise managers.



If given a choice between the two, which would you rather have running your club?



Here are some notes to help you decide:



Bill Belichick

• 15 seasons as head coach (Cleveland Browns, Patriots)
• Regular-season record: 159-92 (.633)
• Regular-season record minus start-up seasons: 148-71 (.676)
• Playoff record: 27-12 (.692)
• Four Super Bowls (not counting three as New York Giants and Patriots defensive coordinator)
• Three championships (not counting two as Giants defensive coordinator)
• Five division titles
• Key moves: Opted to stick with Tom Brady over Drew Bledsoe. … Traded for Corey Dillon, Randy Moss and Wes Welker. … First-round draft picks include defensive lineman Richard Seymour, defensive end Ty Warren, nose tackle Vince Wilfork, guard Logan Mankins, running back Laurence Maroney, safety Brandon Meriweather and linebacker Jerod Mayo. … Has replaced numerous coordinators in New England.

Bill Polian

• 22 seasons as general manager or president (Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Colts)
• Regular-season record: 222-137 (.618)
• Regular-season record minus start-up seasons: 207-89 (.699)
• Playoff record: 16-14 (.533)
• Four Super Bowls
• One championship
• 11 division titles
• Key moves: Hired head coaches Marv Levy in Buffalo and Tony Dungy in Indianapolis. … Drafted Hall of Fame running back Thurman Thomas in the second round. … Traded for Cornelius Bennett. … Drafted quarterback Peyton Manning first overall, wide receiver Reggie Wayne, defensive end Dwight Freeney and safety Bob Sanders.

Nov. 12: Mike Florio thinks the Chiefs made the right decision in cutting Larry Johnson because it kept him from causing trouble in the locker room and suggests LJ wait a few weeks before trying to sign with another team. (NBC Sports)

Nov. 12: Mike Florio thinks the Chiefs made the right decision in cutting Larry Johnson because it kept him from causing trouble in the locker room and suggests LJ wait a few weeks before trying to sign with another team. (NBC Sports)

Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert



Here’s how unpredictable the NFL is: As dark as these days are for Chicago and its fans, I have no trouble conceiving the possibility that the Bears could go to San Francisco on three days’ rest and beat the 49ers. Often, that’s how this league works: You get steamrolled one week (or, in the Bears’ case, twice in the past three weeks) and then win a game that logic dictates you shouldn’t.



How could it happen? Let’s run through a few tips as we anticipate an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff:

• Never underestimate how bad the other team might be, or might be playing at the moment. Sure, things seem dire for the Bears as they sit at 4-4, having recently been on the losing end of 45-10 and 41-21 games. But don’t forget the 49ers have lost four consecutive games and haven’t won since the first week of October. San Francisco fans are feeling the same way about the 49ers as you feel about the Bears.
• Don’t oversell to stop tailback Frank Gore. There’s no doubt Gore has been a game-breaker at times this season. But know this: Almost half of his season yardage total have come on three big carries. That’s right. Gore has touchdown runs of 80, 79 and 64 yards; that’s a total of 223 yards. On his other 77 carries, Gore has 224 yards. That means on 96 percent of his runs this season, Gore is averaging 2.9 yards per carry. I’m not diminishing the game-changing potential of a long run. But it’s important to remember that in the big picture, Gore has been pretty well shut down by opposing defenses. If it were me, I wouldn’t necessarily be compelled to bring an eighth defender in the box.
• Consider quarterback Alex Smith eminently shakable and scheme your blitzes accordingly. In his past two starts, Smith has thrown four interceptions and has been sacked eight times. The Bears shouldn’t back off their pressure packages just because Arizona’s Kurt Warner handled them well last week. With the Bears’ injury-depleted secondary, pressure will be at a premium. Smith is more likely to force passes and make poor decisions than Warner or even Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer.
• Resist the urge to remove some pressure from quarterback Jay Cutler. After eight games of an almost nonexistent running game, there is no reason to believe the Bears can suddenly dominate the game on the ground against a Patrick Willis-led defense. It’s true that Cutler has struggled in two prime-time games this season, throwing a combined six interceptions at Green Bay and Atlanta, but he is still the Bears’ offensive MVP. In a time of crisis, you have to count on your top players. Or, at least, go down with them having every opportunity to right the ship.

Let’s circle back on these issues after the game.