Archive for November 5th, 2009
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Tony Dungy and Mark Schlereth break down the biggest stories in the NFL.
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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) -A jury convicted an ex-con Thursday of attempted first-degree murder in the shooting of former Jacksonville Jaguars offensive lineman Richard Collier in 2008.
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| AFC strength of schedule: Weeks 9 through 17 |
| Team |
Opp. record |
Opp. win pct. |
| New England Patriots |
38-28 |
.576 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
38-29 |
.567 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
35-31 |
.530 |
| New York Jets |
30-27 |
.526 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
34-31 |
.523 |
| Houston Texans |
29-28 |
.509 |
| Oakland Raiders |
29-28 |
.509 |
| Denver Broncos |
32-33 |
.492 |
| Buffalo Bills |
28-29 |
.491 |
| Tennessee Titans |
32-34 |
.485 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
32-25 |
.478 |
| San Diego Chargers |
31-34 |
.477 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
30-35 |
.462 |
| Miami Dolphins |
30-35 |
.462 |
| Cleveland Browns |
25-32 |
.439 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
29-38 |
.433 |
| AFC strength of schedule: Weeks 1 through 8 |
| Team |
Opp. record |
Opp. win pct. |
| Cleveland Browns |
38-20 |
.655 |
| Miami Dolphins |
33-19 |
.635 |
| Tennessee Titans |
32-19 |
.627 |
| Oakland Raiders |
34-25 |
.576 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
29-22 |
.569 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
29-22 |
.569 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
27-24 |
.529 |
| Denver Broncos |
26-25 |
.510 |
| New York Jets |
29-30 |
.492 |
| Buffalo Bills |
28-31 |
.475 |
| San Diego Chargers |
23-28 |
.451 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
23-28 |
.451 |
| New England Patriots |
22-29 |
.431 |
| Houston Texans |
25-34 |
.424 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
21-30 |
.411 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
17-33 |
.340 |
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Posted by ESPN.com’s Paul Kuharsky
Over at AFC East headquarters, Tim Graham commissioned some strength of schedule information.
And looking at Weeks 1 through 8, the AFC South has had it pretty easy.
The Texans faced the 13th easiest schedule so far, the Jaguars the 14th and the Colts the 15th. They all have the 1-6 Titans to thank at least in part. Tennessee, incidentally unable to play itself, faced the third-toughest schedule top this point.
I always keep in mind that in strength of schedule for past games it’s important to note the teams in question may have contributed. The Colts opponents are, of course, seven games worse because the Colts are 7-0 against them.
Looking ahead, Indianapolis now has the second most difficult remaining schedule based on the records of its remaining opponents, while Houston’s is tied for sixth.
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| NFC strength of schedule: Weeks 1 through 8 |
| Team |
Opp. record |
Opp. win pct. |
Atlanta Falcons
|
30-19 |
.612 |
Detroit Lions
|
30-22 |
.588 |
San Francisco 49ers
|
30-22 |
.588 |
Arizona Cardinals
|
28-23 |
.549 |
Tampa Bay Bucs
|
28-23 |
.549 |
Seattle Seahawks
|
27-23 |
.540 |
St. Louis Rams
|
29-28 |
.509 |
Green Bay Packers
|
26-27 |
.491 |
New Orleans Saints
|
25-27 |
.481 |
Carolina Panthers
|
23-27 |
.460 |
New York Giants
|
26-31 |
.456 |
Chicago Bears
|
22-28 |
.440 |
Dallas Cowboys
|
21-29 |
.420 |
Minnesota Vikings
|
23-35 |
.397 |
Philadelphia Eagles
|
20-31 |
.392 |
Washington Redskins
|
16-35 |
.314 |
| NFC strength of schedule: Weeks 9 through 17 |
| Team |
Opp. record |
Opp. win pct. |
Washington Redskins
|
43-22 |
.662 |
Carolina Panthers
|
42-24 |
.636 |
New York Giants
|
36-21 |
.632 |
Philadelphia Eagles
|
38-26 |
.594 |
Tampa Bay Bucs
|
38-26 |
.594 |
Dallas Cowboys
|
36-29 |
.554 |
Chicago Bears
|
36-30 |
.545 |
St. Louis Rams
|
30-27 |
.526 |
Detroit Lions
|
34-31 |
.523 |
Minnesota Vikings
|
28-29 |
.491 |
Green Bay Packers
|
28-35 |
.444 |
Atlanta Falcons
|
29-37 |
.439 |
Seattle Seahawks
|
26-40 |
,394 |
San Francisco 49ers
|
25-39 |
.391 |
Arizona Cardinals
|
24-42 |
.364 |
New Orleans Saints
|
23-41 |
.359 |
|
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Posted by ESPN.com’s Mike Sando
Dawood asks via Facebook: I was wondering if you can make a chart such as this one, but for NFC West teams.
Mike Sando: I’ve put together an NFC answer to Tim’s AFC chart, courtesy of Elias Sports Bureau via ESPN Stats & Information. I also flip-flopped the chart so Weeks 1 through 8 appeared on top, with Weeks 9 through 17 on bottom.
The charts show strength of schedules for NFC teams based on games played (top chart) and games yet to play (bottom chart). NFC West teams have played four of the seven toughest schedules in the NFC to this point.
Looking ahead, however, the Cardinals, 49ers and Seahawks face relatively easy roads ahead. They play three of the four easiest remaining schedules for NFC teams, based on records to this point in the season. The poor Rams draw an even tougher second-half schedule while contributing to a Saints schedule heretofore known as the Big Easy.
Check out the Redskins. They have struggled against the easiest schedule in the NFC to this point. The toughest remaining schedule in the NFC awaits. Good luck, Jim Zorn. You’re going to need it.
The Cardinals appear to be in good position to maintain their one-game lead in the division, but a 49ers victory over Arizona in Week 14 — at Candlestick — could make things tougher. I see Arizona winning at least five more games, beating the Seahawks, Rams (twice), Titans and Lions. That would put them at 9-7 even if they lost to the 49ers again.
In that case, the 49ers would also need to win nine games if they were to win the division title. To do that, the 49ers would have to win six of their final nine, including against Arizona. The way I see things, they would probably have to win their next two, both at home, against the Titans and Bears. I would also have them beating the Jaguars, Lions and Rams. Picking up another victory somewhere along the way — say, at Seattle — would be huge.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, might have a tough enough time getting from 2-5 to 7-9. They could get to 7-9 by beating the Lions, Rams, 49ers, Bucs and Titans. Contending for the division title might require additional victories over, say, the Cardinals and Texans, both on the road. That will be tough.
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Receiver says he’s not divisive, while Tony Romo says he gets along great with him.
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Bob Levey/Getty Images |
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Bernard Pollard has shored up the strong safety position for the Texans, who haven’t had a steady presence at the position during Gary Kubiak’s tenure. |
Posted by ESPN.com’s Paul Kuharsky
Since Gary Kubiak became head coach of the Houston Texans in 2006, he’s deployed seven different starting strong safeties.
A secondary in need of a steady physical presence didn’t get great consistency out of Glenn Earl, Jason Simmons, C.C. Brown, Brandon Harrison, Nick Ferguson, Dominique Barber or John Busing. Injuries prompted some of the changes.
But in Bernard Pollard, whose insertion into the lineup has coincided with improved defensive play, perhaps Kubiak and the Texans finally have found their man.
In October, the Texans were the fifth-best defense in the league based on yardage surrendered, and 10th in scoring defense. The defensive improvements from the first three games to the last five are remarkable, as you can see in this handy chart the team provided.
| Houston's defensive improvement, 2009 |
| Category |
First 3 games |
Last 5 games |
Difference |
| Rush yards/game |
205.0* |
58.2** |
-146.8 |
| Pass yards/game |
231.7 |
202.2 |
-29.5 |
| Total yards/game |
436.7* |
260.4 |
-176.3 |
| Points per game |
28.7 |
16.4 |
-12.3 |
* Worst in the NFL. ** Best in the NFL. |
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All these defensive developments are wonderful for a team with the third-ranked passing game and eighth-ranked offense. Defensive consistency is a major boon for any team keyed around a potent and efficient passing attack.
What has Pollard brought?
“I take pride with my tackling, I take pride in being in the right places,” he said. “I watch games around the league and you see guys get interceptions. I wish that could happen with me. But I don’t have time to try to bait quarterbacks, because when you try to bait, things happen. Some guys get away with it.
“I’m not that player. I am a player if you expect me to be wherever on the field, that’s where I am going to be. If that makes the quarterback go to another read, then that’s going to be a coverage sack or he’s going to go somewhere else. But I take pride in tackling, I take pride in coming in with high intensity and trying to get my teammates around me to get pumped up.”
Pollard was initially a 2006 second-round pick by the Kansas City Chiefs out of Purdue, selected 54th overall. In 2008, he delivered the hit that ended Tom Brady’s season, carrying himself with grace after the accident.
The Chiefs’ new regime made him part of its roster turnover and released him on Sept. 5. But David Gibbs, the Texans’ new defensive backs coach, had come to Houston from K.C. He helped facilitate adding Pollard to Houston’s roster.
Pollard has not solved the Texans’ troubles by himself. He has been a positive influence in exemplifying the theme that’s so popular around the league: Do your job while trusting that the guy to your right, to your left, in front of you, and behind you will do his. He said he’s seen that trust grow, and with success comes additional confidence.
Now he will try to help slow Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts‘ offense Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in a game that’s fair to rate as the biggest in the Texans’ history.
A win would put the Texans at 6-3, three games over .500 for the first time ever. A victory will keep them in range of the AFC South-leading Colts, who would be 7-1. A rematch at Reliant Stadium on Nov. 19 looms.
One of Manning’s biggest weapons, tight end Dallas Clark, said the Texans’ defense starts up front, but that Pollard’s on his radar.
“Their two ends [Mario Williams and Antonio Smith] and their linebackers, that’s the strength of their defense,” Clark said. “The safeties and the corners, a lot of the things they do is because of the pressure and [the ends] getting the quarterbacks to make bad decisions. Still, they’re there to make the play, which is what their defense needs. But I think everything they do well starts up front …
“[Pollard] is a big safety. He’s a guy who loves to hit and loves to make plays. As a receiver, you have to make sure you know where he is.”
Tackling was a major issue early this season, when, for example, Tennessee Titans halfback Chris Johnson accounted for 284 yards against Houston. Sixty-nine of them came when he lined up wide to the left uncovered. Kerry Collins got the ball to him immediately, and the Texans didn’t even have a chance to miss tackles. It was Barber’s mistake, and he was benched for it with Busing replacing him.
Now concerns over such matters are much smaller.
“He’s done a nice job of coming in and kind of taking up what we are teaching, our concepts, our program,” Texans defensive coordinator Frank Bush said of Pollard. “He’s brought a physical presence to us first of all. The kid’s a big [6-foot-1, 224 pounds] and physical football player, he enjoys the contact. He seeks it. He’s the most physical presence in that secondary and all the guys try to emulate what he’s doing.”
“He’s smart, he takes good angles to the ball, he tries to keep himself out of harm’s way as far as angles on running backs and then he brings a load to the party when he hits you.”
That’s a pretty good addition when you sign a guy after the season’s under way and he quickly becomes a player others are looking to follow. Bush was surprised to get such a quality player at such a time.
Pollard appears to be a solution at what has been a questionable spot.
“He’s kind of shored it up for us and let us feel confident about what we want to call. He’ll go out and execute our program,” Bush said.
After being part of two miserable seasons in Kansas City where the Chiefs were 6-26, Pollard said he’s thrilled to be on a 5-3 team that’s got reasonable expectations of a playoff berth.
But he’s not yet sure he’s a long-term answer for a team who’s been searching for a solution at his spot.
“I hope I ended it,” he said. “Nothing’s settled until you actually sign a long-term deal and you know you are in this city for a certain amount of time. So no player gets that gratification until it’s actually done. I am very happy with what I am doing, where I am. And I hope that I prove myself. It’s still a long season and things can happen.
“Do I look for them to happen? No. I’m going to prepare myself to bring my A-game and to get my teammates, and for them to get me, hyped as can be to play football at a high level every Sunday from here on out.”
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Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert
We’ve spent a good portion of this season evaluating the downfield production of our NFC North quarterbacks. Yards thrown past the line of scrimmage and yards per attempt are two good measures from a passer’s perspective.
On the other side, however, is yards gained after the catch. In the business, we call it “YAC.” (Who doesn’t like to get their YAC on?) In essence, this analysis measures the additional contribution of receivers to the passing game. It’s also another way of viewing the intention of a team’s scheme. How much of a quarterback’s production is based on the throw, and how much is based on his receivers’ playmaking abilities?
The guys and gals at ESPN Stats & Information have compiled total YAC for each NFL team through Week 8. Below, you’ll see where each NFC North team ranks based on total percent of yards coming after the catch:
| Air and Space: Yards after catch |
| NFL ranking |
Team |
YAC |
Pct. of total yards |
| 6 |
Detroit |
744 |
49.5 |
| 7 |
Minnesota |
982 |
48.9 |
| 21 |
Chicago |
718 |
42.7 |
| 29 |
Green Bay |
712 |
35.5 |
| Source: ESPN's Stats & Information |
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A couple of numerical parameters to keep in mind: St. Louis has the NFL’s highest YAC percentage at 53.8. Tampa Bay has the lowest at 34 percent, and the NFL’s median YAC is Buffalo at 44.7 percent.
As you can see, Minnesota by far has more total yards after the catch. The other three division teams have roughly the same total, but the Lions have the highest percentage relative to their total yardage.
I think these numbers make intuitive sense and help create a clearer picture of each quarterback’s approach. (In the Lions’ case, the numbers include three quarterbacks: Matthew Stafford, Daunte Culpepper and Drew Stanton. Recently, the have all been limited by the absence of star receiver Calvin Johnson.)
Favre has increased the frequency of his downfield throws over the past month, but over the course of eight games he’s still made liberal use of the checkdown pass. Tailbacks Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson, in fact, have quietly combined for 43 receptions.
These figures also demonstrate the downfield approach Jay Cutler has taken in Chicago. The Bears have some excellent post-catch runners in Devin Hester, Johnny Knox and Matt Forte. But these numbers suggest Cutler is keying further downfield than, say, the average NFL quarterback.
Finally, I don’t think anyone should be surprised that the Packers and Aaron Rodgers have one of the league’s lowest percentage for YAC. More than anything, I think it’s an excellent illustration of the offensive transition the Packers have made from Favre to Rodgers under coach Mike McCarthy.
The Packers lead the NFL with 15 passes of at least 30 yards and nine of at least 40 yards. Rodgers is also tied for first among NFL quarterbacks with an 8.8-yard average per attempt. You can pop some long gainers on short passes, but over time the teams with the highest per-pass average are the ones throwing it deep with the greatest frequency.
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