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	Stew Milne-US PRESSWIRE
	New England’s Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are facing the AFC’s toughest schedule from here on out.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Tim Graham



The New York Jets and Buffalo Bills are on their bye weeks. The New England Patriots are emerging from their week off. The Miami Dolphins had theirs last month.



Not every AFC East club has played eight games, but we’re entering the second half of the season. It is November. We’re in Week 9, high time to start harvesting the schedules to consider which teams have a legitimate shot at the playoffs.

Preseason schedule strength is oftentimes misleading. The AFC East owned four of the league’s seven most difficult schedules based on last year’s records. But we all know last year’s successes or failures don’t always carry over, right Nashville?



Eight weeks of football, however, yield a suitable sample size of how teams are likely to perform the rest of the way.



With that in mind, we might be on the verge of a fascinating homestretch.



The Miami Dolphins actually might catch the New England Patriots.



The Patriots, Las Vegas’ pick to win the Super Bowl, would appear to be in command. They lead the AFC East by a game and a half over the New York Jets and are two games ahead of the Dolphins, who, when they opened the season 0-3, were practically condemned.



But the Patriots are about to embark on the AFC’s most difficult remaining schedule. Their opponents are 38-28 for a robust .576 winning percentage.



The Dolphins, meanwhile, have the AFC’s third-easiest path and the smoothest in the division by far. Their remaining opponents are 30-35 for a .462 win percentage.



Some fans might be comfortable with a second-place finish and a wild-card berth. That would be a reckless assumption. The way the conference is shaking out, the only AFC East team to reach the postseason will be the champion.



The AFC East and forsaken NFC West are the only divisions where the second-place team doesn’t have a winning record.



It’s possible the AFC North could send three teams to the playoffs, with the Cincinnati Bengals (AFC’s easiest remaining schedule), Pittsburgh Steelers (fourth-easiest) and Baltimore Ravens (fifth-hardest) worthy candidates.



The Denver Broncos (eighth-toughest) appear on their way to claiming the AFC West, but the San Diego Chargers (fifth-easiest) are good enough to make a run and earn a wild card. So are the Houston Texans (sixth-toughest).



How many of those candidates can the AFC East’s second-place team displace?



Let’s take a look at what lies ahead for all four AFC East clubs.



New England Patriots (5-2 overall, 1-1 AFC East)



Where they’ve been: Despite one of the AFC’s softest schedules through Week 8, the Patriots endured some turbulence. They narrowly averted an embarrassing defeat to the Buffalo Bills on opening night and lost to the Jets and the Denver Broncos. They searched for an identity offensively and defensively. Tom Brady didn’t regain his form as naturally as many assumed. Third receiver Joey Galloway didn’t work out. A defensive overhaul and injury to top linebacker Jerod Mayo forced a transformation that took time to work itself out.



Where they’re going: The Patriots wiped their cleats on a pair of doormats before the bye week. They rolled up big scores and were sensational on defense against the Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Whoopee. The Patriots need to perform against legit competition before they can be considered elite again — at least in my book. Their next five games include the Dolphins twice, a rematch with the Jets and the top two teams in ESPN.com’s power rankings, the undefeated Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints. If the Patriots can escape that stretch at 8-4 or better, they’ll still be in control in December. If not, then the door opens for the Dolphins.



New York Jets (4-4, 1-3)



Where they’ve been: The Jets have the AFC East’s second-best record, but they’re not the division’s second-best team. They’ve gone from Super Bowl contenders to ordinary in a hurry. A 3-0 start against quality opposition (Houston Texans, Patriots, Titans) captured everyone’s imaginations, but the Jets have won just a single game (against the Oakland Raiders) in their past five tries. The Dolphins stunned them twice, and those losses guarantee the Jets cannot have a winning record in the division.



Where they’re going: The Jets have the AFC’s fourth-toughest remaining schedule, a .526 win percentage. They’ll need to navigate it with a rookie quarterback not used to playing in the winter elements and without star nose tackle Kris Jenkins and Pro Bowl all-purpose back Leon Washington, both done for the year. The Jets have some soft opponents ahead: Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers, Bills and Buccaneers. But they also have to play the Patriots in Gillette Stadium and finish the year with a treacherous threesome: Atlanta Falcons, Colts and Bengals.



Miami Dolphins (3-4, 3-0)



Where they’ve been: Unless the Dolphins can take advantage of their weak second-half schedule, they almost certainly will remember 2009 as the season they had two heavyweights on the ropes. They should’ve defeated the Saints and the Colts, but couldn’t close them out. The Dolphins have remained a live team by winning all of their AFC East games thus far. Chad Pennington‘s season-ending shoulder injury was supposed to doom them, but they’re still are good enough to beat any team in the league.



Where they’re going: With a grueling part of their schedule behind them — their opponents through Week 8 combined for a .635 win percentage — the rest of the season opens up some possibilities to climb back into the race. Chad Henne has been shaky the past couple games, posting a 52.6 passer rating. But if he can get his act together, there are plenty of victories to be had, notably against the Buccaneers, Panthers, Bills, Jaguars and Titans from Weeks 10 through 15. The Patriots in Week 13 are the only team in that stretch with a winning record.



Buffalo Bills (3-5, 1-2)



Where they’ve been: The Bills are way out of it. Even if they had finished off the Patriots on opening night and escaped one of the ugliest games in NFL history with a tie against the Cleveland Browns in Week 5, they still would be a mess. There’s far too much chaos — from the offensive coordinator getting fired 10 days before the opener to the obscene number of injuries at every position except receiver and running back, where they had a Pro Bowler suspended three games. The combined record of the three teams they’ve defeated is 7-15.



Where they’re going: Maybe they can match the standard head coach Dick Jauron set in his first three seasons by going finishing 7-9 each time. That’s consistency for you. Maybe the Bills claw back to .500 against the Titans and Jaguars in their first two games after the bye. They also have the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14. But the Bills finish against the Patriots, Falcons and Colts — maybe the most difficult final three games in the NFL. Happy holidays.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Matt Mosley



IRVING, Texas — As I’ve always said, there’s no one in the league who can do more with 19 yards receiving than Roy Williams. The Cowboys’ “No. 1″ wide receiver is in an awkward spot right now because the Cowboys are winning games while receiving little to no production from him.

	Doug Pensinger/Getty Images
	Roy Williams still doesn’t seem to be on the same page with quarterback Tony Romo.

Miles Austin has emerged as the Cowboys’ most dangerous offensive weapon — and he’s understandably quarterback Tony Romo‘s favorite target right now. On Wednesday at Valley Ranch, Williams fielded question after question regarding why he and Romo don’t appear to be on the same page.

“It’s just not even close,” Williams said of his on-field rapport with the quarterback. “It’s not even funny. Not even close.”

When I jokingly suggested a scenario in which his former Lions quarterback Jon Kitna was allowed to take the field on pass plays called for Williams, the wide receiver bit his lip and smiled. But the suggestion that perhaps Austin had become the team’s No. 1 wide receiver drew a quick response from Williams.

“I’m the No. 1 receiver,” Williams said. “But things are just going No. 2′s way.”

In 16 games with the Cowboys, Williams has 33 catches for 447 yards and three touchdowns — or roughly a decent couple of games for Austin. To Williams’ credit, he’s never run from the questions. He knows better than anyone that last season’s trade looks like a bust at this point and I think he’ll do everything in his power to change that perception. But right now, he doesn’t think he’s getting the same types of opportunities as Austin.

“He gets the ball thrown correctly his way,” Williams said of Austin. “I’m stretching and falling and doing everything. Everybody [else] who’s been here’s balls are there. Our footballs [from Romo to Williams] are everywhere right now.”

But before we draw comparisons to a former complainer/wide receiver at Valley Ranch, I honestly think Williams is happy to be part of a winning team. He just feels like he could be doing more to help — and it’s easy to see why that’s frustrating. Personally, I think that Romo’s improvement in protecting the football may actually be hurting Williams’ cause. Unlike a smaller, quicker receiver, Williams isn’t going to get a lot of separation from cornerbacks. At times, you need to throw it to a spot and let him make a play on the ball.



Romo’s not taking as many chances right now. In the big picture, that’s helping the Cowboys. But it doesn’t appear to be helping Roy Williams at all. If anyone disagrees with this amazing theory, please let me hear from you in the comments section. Your undying support in that section hasn’t gone unnoticed.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Pat Yasinskas



Steve Smith is the league leader in being targeted by quarterbacks. Problem is, it’s the wrong Steve Smith.



The one who is tied for the league lead with 77 targets plays for the New York Giants. The one with the Carolina Panthers has been somewhat forgotten. Carolina’s Smith, who has been the victim of inconsistency just about everywhere else on offense, hasn’t been targeted nearly as much as he usually is. But he still ranks among the league leaders. Carolina’s Smith has been targeted 62 times.



That ranks him second among NFC South receivers. Atlanta’s Roddy White has been targeted 64 times. Here’s a look at the league leaders in targets:

Now, I’m going to share a chart that doesn’t list any NFC South players, but I think it still is significant. This is the list of league leaders in dropped passes. Several thoughts here:



Kudos to New Orleans’ Devery Henderson, who has put his early-career drops way behind him. Next, it should be noted that drops are not an official NFL stat. These are determined by ESPN Stats & Information, after the breakdown of tape. Looks like — like a lot of people — they haven’t been watching Tampa Bay’s games because I could swear Michael Clayton and Antonio Bryant have combined for about 47 drops.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Paul Kuharsky



A running back going against an unfamiliar team can be a surprise.



No matter how much film a defense has watched, a guy can be shiftier, more slippery, faster, stronger or tougher to bring down than he appears.



Division games are, of course, a different deal.



There are few such surprises between teams that face each other twice a year and often gear their personnel moves and roster construction to give themselves the best chance of conquering their most frequent foes.



So what does it say that the AFC South boasts the NFL’s three best running backs when we measure only division games?



This chart comes courtesy of the Titans supplemental weekly notes.

Is this a good thing that shows how good these three backs are? Is it a bad thing that shows how these defenses, even as familiar as they are with these backs, still can’t stop them?



I’m curious about your interpretations.

	Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images
	Arizona receiver Larry Fitzgerald and quarterback Kurt Warner have to start getting creative against the Cover 2 defense.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Mike Sando



NFL defenses still fear the Arizona Cardinals‘ downfield passing attack.



That is the problem, actually.



Quarterback Kurt Warner and receiver Larry Fitzgerald became so dangerous striking downfield last season that opponents backed off in their coverages, particularly when they suspected Arizona might be ready to take a deep shot.



That explains the telling quote from coach Ken Whisenhunt following the Cardinals’ 34-21 loss to Carolina in Week 8: “It seems like every time we try to throw it down the field, we’re getting Cover 2.”

The chart, provided by ESPN Stats & Analysis, illustrates some of the Cardinals’ difficulties.



The longer Warner’s passes travel in the air, the less efficient he becomes. How much less efficient is the problem. On passes of 20 yards or more, Warner’s rating of 35.5 is tied for 30th in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 25 attempts.



Well, yes, but … what to do?



The Cardinals might have to run their way out of their current passing rut. And they’ll have to be bold enough at least some of the time to throw downfield anyway, something Whisenhunt indicated the team would consider heading into its Week 9 game at Chicago.



“The challenge becomes going in and trying to march the ball down the field,” ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer said. “There are still big plays to be made against Cover 2 and that is what coaches have to be willing to do.”



Dilfer and I connected Wednesday to discuss the Cardinals’ offensive issues in greater detail.



Mike Sando: You said there are bigger plays to be made. What does that entail specifically?



Trent Dilfer: They have to say, “This is who we are, this is how teams are going to defend us, so when they do get into this defense we can be aggressive about, we can either check to a play, hand signal a play or draw up some shots vs. soft zone.” There are ways. They are higher risk, but there are ways to dial up bigger plays against soft defenses. It takes some reps and some understanding of the seams you want to exploit and it takes some guts.



Mike Sando: They’ll certainly see Cover 2 zones against Lovie Smith and the Bears.



Trent Dilfer: Chicago is coming off their big confidence game. Chicago is going to play enough single-high safety because they are not just a Cover 2 team anymore. With Lovie calling the signals, they are more aggressive. Charles Tillman has some issues in coverage. There will be more opportunities. And a big play can just be a fade stop where you break a tackle. The ball does not have to be in the air 40 yards.



Mike Sando: Is there anything wrong with the Cardinals’ scheme?



Trent Dilfer: The Cardinals are very similar to the Patriots in how they act in the passing game. The concepts are not the same and the personnel is not always the same, but it’s the same philosophy. They put a horizontal stretch on the field, they have guys running deep as clearouts and also intermediate and short options. It’s great. It’s a well-designed passing game. But what happens is when these teams want to take a shot, they get into these run formations and they call their shots off that. Defenses say, “Keep everything in front of us. As long as we think they are going to take as hot, we need to have a deep safety with soft corners and buzz underneath corners.” You need to run the ball from run sets to force teams to play the run so you can take play-action shots.



Mike Sando: It’s only Week 8. The Cardinals put up better numbers to this point last season, but they didn’t become a good team until the playoffs.



Trent Dilfer: Quarterbacks are not always hot 16 weeks a year. Even in 2007, Tom Brady had a lot of misses. He didn’t throw 90 percent. He was still only in the high 60s, but we never showed the misses because he hit enough of the big ones that that was all we show. The perceptions are based on the highlights they saw. It’s the same thing with Kurt. He has made a lot of nice throws this year, but he has thrown bad ones and that is what we are seeing.



Mike Sando: As poorly as the Cardinals played Sunday, I thought Carolina played extremely well. And then every bounce that could have gone against the Cardinals did go against them in a big way. Tipped balls went for picks. Julius Peppers made an incredible play on a screen.



Trent Dilfer: Take that pass to Urban that was intercepted. It’s a 7-8 combination with the 8 route (post) on the outside with a 7 (post-corner) on the inside. When you freeze that play right when Kurt threw the ball, the outside corner has carried the 8 route. Urban comes out of the 7 and to Jerheme’s eye and Kurt’s eye, the corner has run out of the play.



When the ball is 2 or 3 yards downfield, the corner recognizes it late and makes an incredible play. Arizona does everything you ask them to do. Perfect combination, perfect route, perfectly thrown ball and the corner makes the play and the ball comes up and you know what? There was another guy there to catch it. You tell Jerheme to catch the ball, to brace for the hit. You tell Kurt to maybe put less air on it so the corner doesn’t get there. But when you throw the ball that much, those things are going to happen — tipped balls, deflected balls, defensive ends jumping out of cut blocks.



Mike Sando: I think the Cardinals are also working through some personnel issues. The faster they can work Beanie Wells into the mainstream of the offense, the better equipped they’ll be to take those downfield shots on better terms. They fell behind too quickly against the Panthers to stick with the run. They’ll get another chance Sunday at Chicago and I’ll be interested in seeing if this is the week things start to change.

Posted by ESPN.com’s James Walker



CINCINNATI — Chad Ochocinco was the only Bengal who admittedly didn’t want a bye week. The star receiver gets so amped to play the defense of the Baltimore Ravens that Ochocinco wanted it to happen last Sunday if possible.

	AP Photo/Ed Reinke
	Chad Ochocinco claimed he had a “special package being delivered” to the Ravens’ defense.

The Bengals were coming off their most impressive performance of the season, a 45-10 thrashing of the Chicago Bears, when Ochocinco proclaimed he was ready to face division rival Baltimore. But Ochocinco instead had to wait two weeks for this much-anticipated meeting between the Ravens (4-3) and first-place Bengals (5-2) at Paul Brown Stadium.



It is a revenge game for Baltimore after losing at home to Cincinnati earlier this season.



“Oh my goodness, I’m getting ready,” Ochocinco said in the locker room. “The bye week, I think it kind of set me back to where it takes only two or three days to really get yourself off your game. Other than that I’m ready to play. I’m looking forward to this challenge again with Ray [Lewis], with Ed Reed and the rest of the secondary.”



Ochocinco is up to some of his old tricks.



He stated his performance and touchdown celebrations will be kicked up a notch during the second half of the season. The receiver also had a surprise for the Ravens this week, although he wouldn’t elaborate.



“I got a special package being delivered to the Ravens’ secondary — actually the whole defense,” Ochocinco said. “I just want to send my condolences right now. You’re welcome ahead of time.”



Baltimore looks rejuvenated after pounding the previously undefeated Denver Broncos (6-1) last week, setting up a great AFC North matchup.



The Ravens will enter Cincinnati very upset after giving up a late touchdown to lose 17-14 to the Bengals Oct. 11 at M&T Bank Stadium.



“I can care less how they feel,” Ochocinco said bluntly. “I can care less about their attitude. All of them.”

Posted by ESPN.com’s Tim Graham



Miami Dolphins linebacker Jason Taylor, exultant over collecting a fumble and returning it 48 yards for a touchdown Sunday against the New York Jets, looked for the appropriate way to express himself.



Taylor greeted his trailing teammates then spun and fired the ball at the Jets logo on the wall behind the end zone.

	Ed Mulholland-US PRESSWIRE
	Jason Taylor’s Dolphins have two wins over the Jets this season.

“To score a touchdown in New York against the Jets in the last time I’ll be in the hellhole they call a stadium up there before they get rid of it and move to the new one,” Taylor said, “it was outstanding.”



Taylor delivered that quote in an interview scheduled to air Friday on Sirius NFL Radio.



Taylor’s distaste for the Jets and their fans is well-known. In the spring, when he was discussing the possibilities of which team he might play for in 2009, he said, “it’d be very, very, very difficult” to play for the Jets given all of the strong opinions he’d voiced about them over the years.



Sirius host Adam Schein got Taylor going on the subject again. They discussed the Dolphins knocking off the Jets twice this year after so much trash-talking between the teams.



“The problem I have is with the Jets fans,” Taylor said. “It’s not really a problem; it’s kind of this rivalry that has gone on, and they love to hate me, and I love to hate them, and we’ve had some fun over the years. They’ve had a lot of fun at my expense. I’ve had some fun at their expense at times.



“It’s the times like this where you beat them and they just keep talking. They just keep going, and they just don’t know when to be quiet.



“You know, I’ve said a lot of things about Jets fans in the past, and I’m sure at heart they’re good people. Most of them are good people. The Giants fans are a different type of people. Just put it that way. There’s a little more class on the Giants’ side, and some Jets fans take the ‘c-l’ out of class.”



Shein asked Taylor if the Jets talk too much for their own good and perhaps get opponents additionally jacked up to play them.



“We tried to make a concerted effort to stay out of the trash-talking, although we did engage in some, and I know it dated back to the offseason with Channing Crowder and Rex Ryan and their little spat there for a couple of weeks,” Taylor said.



“Everyone’s going to have a different opinion as to whether or not somebody talks too much. When you lose two games to the same team in a year it is probably time to stop talking a little bit and move on to your next opponent and get ready to play.



“After we beat them the first time here in Miami, they talked about it for a few weeks. Because our games were three weeks apart, they talked about it for a few weeks, and maybe it got in the way and tripped them up against the Buffalo Bills. They lost to the Bills up there in New York.



“So there comes a point where you’ve got to win with class, and you’ve got to lose with class, and we try to do that. We’re not perfect. We do engage in some of the trash going back and forth, but at the end of the day we have two wins, and I think that gives us a little more reason to talk.”

» NFC: D. Jackson (PHI) | S. Jackson (STL) | P. Harvin (MIN) | D. Williams (CAR)
» AFC: R. Brown (MIA) | D. Sproles (SD) | J. Cribbs (CLE) | C. Johnson (TEN)

Posted by ESPN.com’s Matt Mosley



A look at the players opposing teams hate to see with the ball in their hands in the open field.



I believe that DeSean Jackson is the most dangerous player in the NFL right now. He’s not the best receiver or the best punt returner — but his ability to strike from anywhere on the field makes him one of the most potent weapons we’ve seen in years. Wide receivers such as the Cardinals’ Larry Fitzgerald and the Texans’ Andre Johnson are going to make a ton of plays, but Jackson’s the type player who only needs a couple of touches to change the course of a game.

	Win McNamee/Getty Images
	DeSean Jackson has six touchdowns this season that have covered at least 50 yards.

Two weeks ago against the Redskins, Jackson took an end around 67 yards for a touchdown on the Eagles’ first possession. Later, he raced through the Skins’ secondary for a 57-yard touchdown and then danced an Irish jig in the end zone. With Jackson in the lineup, the Eagles don’t have to rely on dinking and dunking the ball down the field. There’s not a single player in the league who can cover Jackson one-on-one. The Bucs held him to one catch for 1 yard by using a cornerback and a safety over the top to bracket the second-year receiver.



That opened things up for Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb to connect with rookie wide receiver Jeremy Maclin for a couple of touchdowns. Jackson is by far the most dangerous player in the NFC East right now and I’d put him up against anyone in the league. Last season, he finally hit the rookie wall in December and didn’t even register a catch in a Dec. 7 game against the Giants. But he elevated his game during the ’08 playoffs and became one of McNabb’s favorite targets.



One longtime NFC pro personnel scout told me recently that it’s Jackson’s ability to stutter-step and then be at full speed within about four strides that separates him from most receivers in the league. Asked recently if he’d coached a weapon as potent as Jackson, Eagles coach Andy Reid referenced Terrell Owens and Brian Westbrook. But he quickly returned to Jackson.



“I won’t take anything away from [Jackson],” Reid said. “That kid’s explosive. He’s exciting to watch, and most of all he loves to play the game. He loves to play.”



Jackson already has six touchdowns that have come from 50 or more yards. If he can score two more times from that distance, he’ll tie the record that Elroy “Crazy Legs” Hirsch set in 1951 while with the Los Angeles Rams. He’s scored four times through the air, once on a punt return and once on the end around against the Redskins.



Watching him race down the sideline against the Skins was remarkable in that he completely erased the angles that LaRon Landry and DeAngelo Hall had on him. The only fear with Jackson is his slight frame. He’s not built to take a heavy pounding — but he may not have to when you consider that he’s normally running wide open behind another team’s secondary.



“I’m just being put in some great positions to go out there and, I guess, score over 50 yards,” Jackson said after Sunday’s game. “But whatever we need to do to make it work, man, that’s what we’re going to do.”



Last Sunday, the Giants trimmed the Eagles’ lead to 16-7 late in the first half. It looked like the Giants might finally have gained a little momentum. But on the next play from scrimmage, Jackson sold Giants safety C.C. Brown on a subtle fake to the inside and then raced up the field for a 54-yard touchdown. The Giants were completely deflated by the play and never recovered.



Jackson gives the Eagles more margin for error than they’ve had in years. When a player makes 60-yard touchdowns seem commonplace, it takes pressure off the rest of the offense. I know the Cowboys will probably try to cover Jackson with veteran cornerback Terence Newman and then shade one of the safeties to Jackson’s side. That’s the type of respect the most dangerous player in the game deserves these days.